Burlington, VT
⚖️ Balanced Market📊 Fundamental Scores
🎯 The Bottom Line
The Burlington housing market is cooling with a 1.5% price drop, signaling a shift toward buyers. While the 24.9x price-to-rent ratio heavily favors renting, strategic investors can find value in specific neighborhoods. The verdict is currently RENT.
📈 Price History
📊 Market Activity
📈 Market Analysis
Market Cycle
The Burlington housing market is currently transitioning from a seller's market to a more balanced environment. With a Market Temperature score of 60, activity is stabilizing rather than accelerating. The YoY Price Change of -1.5% indicates that the rapid appreciation seen in previous years has paused, offering a window for buyers to enter without the intense competition of the recent past.
Supply & Demand
Supply dynamics are shifting in favor of buyers, though not decisively. The Months of Supply is 4.3, sitting in the neutral zone but trending toward a buyer's market (defined as 6+ months). Inventory is tight with only 77 active listings, yet buyer demand has cooled enough to allow properties to sit. The Median Days on Market of 35 gives buyers more time to evaluate decisions compared to the frantic pace of 2021-2022.
Pricing Power
Sellers are losing leverage, evidenced by the Sale-to-List Ratio of 99.2%. While close to asking price, it is no longer the double-digit over-asking frenzy seen previously. Furthermore, 15.6% of listings have seen price drops, signaling that sellers must price realistically to attract offers. With only 18 homes sold monthly against 25 new listings, inventory is accumulating slightly faster than it is clearing, capping pricing power.
Burlington, VT Housing Market Forecast 2026–2028
🔮 Burlington Price Forecast 2026–2028
Burlington, VT Housing Market Forecast 2026–2028
For anyone looking at the Burlington housing market forecast through 2028, the data suggests a period of stabilization rather than rapid appreciation. With a current median home price of $497,701 and a recent YoY price change of -1.5%, the market is clearly digesting the rapid gains of the past five years, which saw a cumulative increase of 30.6%. The elevated price-to-rent ratio of 24.9x—significantly above the national average—continues to put pressure on affordability, reinforcing the "RENT" verdict for many prospective residents. While the local economy, anchored by the University of Vermont and a thriving healthcare sector, provides a stable employment base, the high cost of living remains a headwind for new buyers entering the market.
The question of will Burlington home prices drop significantly is complex. The market's strong Risk Grade: A and a moderate "Market Temperature" of 60/100 suggest underlying resilience, supported by a relatively quick 35 Days on Market. However, the combination of high interest rates and constrained inventory will likely keep price growth muted. As we look toward Burlington real estate Burlington 2027, we anticipate a modest recovery in price growth, potentially tracking closer to the historical 5-year CAGR of 5.4% as affordability slowly improves or wages catch up. The city's desirability as a lifestyle hub in New England will prevent a major downturn, but the era of double-digit annual gains appears to be over for now.
Disclaimer: This forecast is a statistical projection based on historical price trends and should not be considered financial advice. Actual market outcomes may vary due to economic conditions, interest rates, local regulations, and other factors.
🏠 Rent vs Buy Analysis
Monthly Cost Breakdown
The financial divergence between renting and buying is stark in Burlington. The median rent stands at $1,441/month, while the monthly carrying costs on a median-priced home (assuming 20% down and current rates) significantly exceed this. The Price-to-Rent Ratio of 24.9x is well above the national average of 18x, mathematically signaling that renting is the financially prudent short-term choice.
5-Year Comparison
Over a 5-year horizon, the cost of ownership includes not just mortgage interest, but also property taxes, insurance, and maintenance—often adding $1,000+ to monthly payments. Renters, conversely, face predictable costs. However, homeowners build equity, though with Burlington home prices currently softening, the immediate appreciation hedge is weaker than in previous years.
When Renting Wins
- The 24.9x ratio makes renting mathematically superior for those with a horizon under 7-10 years.
- Flexibility is key in a market with 35 median days on market, allowing renters to move without transaction costs.
- Avoiding maintenance liabilities in older Burlington housing stock saves significant time and money.
When Buying Wins
- Locking in a fixed mortgage payment provides a hedge against future inflation and rent hikes.
- Buying becomes viable if you plan to hold for 10+ years, allowing equity to offset the high initial ratio.
- With the Market Temperature at 60, negotiating power is returning for buyers willing to commit long-term.
🧮 Can You Afford Burlington? Interactive Calculator
Income Reality Check
Can you actually afford Burlington?
At $80k/year, buying a median home in Burlington will consume over half your income. This is considered severely "house poor". You may need a higher downpayment or a drastic increase in income.
💰 Investment Thesis
Cash Flow Analysis
Investors looking to invest in Burlington face a challenging cash flow environment. The high entry price of $497,701 combined with relatively moderate rents ($1,441) compresses yields. A traditional rental analysis suggests a cap rate likely hovering between 3.5% and 4.2% before expenses, which is tight for cash-flow-focused strategies. Immediate cash flow is difficult to achieve without a significant down payment.
House Hacking
House hacking is the most viable strategy for entry-level investors. By purchasing a multi-family property (common in Burlington neighborhoods like the Old North End) and living in one unit, investors can offset the $497,701 entry cost. This strategy effectively reduces the cost basis and allows the investor to qualify for owner-occupant financing rates, improving the overall CoC (Cash on Cash) return.
Target Investor
The ideal investor for the current Burlington real estate climate is a long-term holder focused on appreciation and tax benefits rather than immediate cash flow. With a Risk Grade of A, the market is stable, and the Boomtown Radar of 46 suggests steady, sustainable growth rather than speculative spikes. This market suits those with a Investor Yield score of 50 tolerance, looking to build wealth over a decade rather than flip for quick profits.
🏘️ House Hacking Calculator Interactive Calculator
House Hacking CalculatorOwner-Occupied Multi-Fam
🗺️ Neighborhood Breakdown
Entry-Level
The Old North End represents the most accessible entry point for Burlington real estate. While prices here are rising, they remain below the city median. This area offers higher density and older housing stock, which appeals to first-time buyers and house hackers seeking multi-family units. Inventory moves faster here, with 32.3% of homes going off-market in two weeks, indicating strong demand for affordable options.
Mid-Range
South End and Winooski (bordering Burlington) offer a mid-range balance of space and amenities. These areas are popular with young professionals and families. The Sale-to-List Ratio of 99.2% holds steady here, showing that well-priced homes in this bracket still attract immediate attention. It is a competitive sweet spot where buyers can find renovated properties without the premium price of the Hill Section.
Premium
The Hill Section and South Lake Champlain waterfront areas command the highest premiums. While the city-wide YoY Price Change is -1.5%, premium segments often hold value better due to limited supply. These neighborhoods cater to high-income buyers and those seeking lifestyle amenities. Inventory turnover is slower here, but the Median Days on Market of 35 suggests that even luxury properties must be priced correctly to sell in the current climate.