Lawrence, KS
⚖️ Balanced Market📊 Fundamental Scores
🎯 The Bottom Line
The Lawrence housing market is cooling into a buyer-friendly phase with 6.2 months of supply. While the price-to-rent ratio of 27.6x heavily favors renting, investors can still find value in house hacking specific Lawrence neighborhoods.
📈 Price History
📊 Market Activity
📈 Market Analysis
Market Cycle
The current Lawrence housing market is shifting from a seller's to a buyer's market. With a Market Temperature score of 67, activity is moderate but inventory is building. The Risk Grade of A suggests stability despite the cooling trend, making it a safer entry point than volatile markets.
Supply & Demand
Supply is currently outpacing demand. The Months of Supply: 6.2 indicates a buyer's market (anything over 6 months). However, demand remains steady with 33.3% of homes selling within two weeks. The inventory of 154 active listings against 54 new listings monthly gives buyers more leverage than they've had in years.
Pricing Power
Sellers are losing pricing power. The Sale-to-List Ratio: 98.8% means homes are selling slightly below asking price. Furthermore, 16.2% of listings have seen price drops, signaling seller urgency. The Median Days on Market: 27 is still relatively fast, but the YoY Price Change: 2.5% shows appreciation has slowed significantly compared to the post-pandemic boom.
Lawrence, KS Housing Market Forecast 2026–2028
🔮 Lawrence Price Forecast 2026–2028
Lawrence, KS Housing Market Forecast 2026–2028
For those evaluating a Lawrence housing market forecast through 2028, the data suggests a period of stabilization rather than the explosive growth seen in the prior five years. With a median home price of $317,779 and a price-to-rent ratio of 27.6x, the market is notably stretched compared to the national average, making purchasing less attractive than renting in the short term. While the 5-year price change of 39.9% demonstrates strong historical appreciation, the cooling YoY change of 2.5% indicates a significant moderation. The "Buy/Rent Verdict" of RENT underscores this shift, suggesting that affordability will be a primary friction point for buyers entering the market over the next few years.
When asking will Lawrence home prices drop, the local economy provides a stabilizing buffer. The presence of the University of Kansas ensures consistent rental demand and employment, supporting a Risk Grade: A. However, affordability constraints will likely prevent significant price acceleration. The rapid 5-year run-up has priced out many first-time buyers, and with Days on Market sitting at just 27, inventory remains tight enough to prevent a crash but not tight enough to fuel a rally. The market temperature of 67/100 reflects this equilibrium—a balanced market where sellers must price competitively, but buyers have slightly more leverage than in previous years.
Looking ahead to Lawrence real estate Lawrence 2027, we expect a consolidation phase. The 6.8% 5-year CAGR is likely unsustainable moving forward; instead, price growth will likely track closely with local wage increases and inflation. The tight rental market, with a median rent of only $869/mo, offers a compelling alternative to buying, which may keep upward pressure on home prices muted as demand softens. While a major downturn is unlikely given the low-risk profile, the era of rapid appreciation appears to be over. Investors and homebuyers should temper expectations, viewing Lawrence as a stable, long-term hold rather than a venue for short-term speculative gains.
Disclaimer: This forecast is a statistical projection based on historical price trends and should not be considered financial advice. Actual market outcomes may vary due to economic conditions, interest rates, local regulations, and other factors.
🏠 Rent vs Buy Analysis
Monthly Cost Breakdown
The financial gap between renting and buying in Lawrence is substantial. The Median Rent: $869/month is exceptionally affordable. In contrast, a home at the Median Home Price: $317,779 with a 20% down payment and 7% interest rate results in a monthly mortgage payment exceeding $1,700, not including taxes and insurance. This creates an immediate monthly savings advantage for renters of nearly $900.
5-Year Comparison
Over five years, the math heavily favors renting. The Price-to-Rent Ratio: 27.6x is significantly higher than the national average of 18x. This high ratio indicates that buying is roughly 27 times more expensive than the annual cost of renting. While the homeowner builds equity, the opportunity cost of investing the monthly savings elsewhere often outperforms the home's appreciation, which is currently only 2.5% YoY.
When Renting Wins
- Monthly cash flow is a priority; saving $869/month vs a mortgage.
- Flexibility is needed; the 27.6x P/R ratio suggests high break-even time.
- Avoiding maintenance costs and property taxes on a $317,779 asset.
When Buying Wins
- Long-term stability in Lawrence neighborhoods is desired.
- Locking in a fixed payment before rates potentially drop further.
- Buying in a Months of Supply: 6.2 market allows for negotiation.
🧮 Can You Afford Lawrence? Interactive Calculator
Income Reality Check
Can you actually afford Lawrence?
Great! At 31.3%, this mortgage falls within healthy financial limits. You have strong purchasing power in Lawrence.
💰 Investment Thesis
Cash Flow Analysis
Investors looking to invest in Lawrence face a challenging cash flow environment. With a median rent of $869/month and a median home price of $317,779, the gross rental yield is approximately 3.3%. After accounting for taxes, insurance, and maintenance (approx. 1.5%), the net yield drops to roughly 1.8%, which is below financing costs. Cash flow is negative for standard leverage.
House Hacking
House hacking is the most viable strategy here. By purchasing a multi-family property or a single-family home with extra rooms in a desirable Lawrence neighborhood, an investor can offset the high carrying costs. The Investor Yield score of 50 reflects this neutral potential. Redfin data shows 25 homes sold monthly, providing a steady, albeit small, pool of inventory for investors to analyze.
Target Investor
The ideal investor is a long-term holder focused on appreciation rather than immediate cash flow. With a Boomtown Radar score of 56, Lawrence is not experiencing explosive growth, but steady demand driven by the university ensures low vacancy risks. Investors should target properties where the Sale-to-List Ratio: 98.8% allows for negotiation below asking price to improve the entry yield.
🏘️ House Hacking Calculator Interactive Calculator
House Hacking CalculatorOwner-Occupied Multi-Fam
🗺️ Neighborhood Breakdown
Entry-Level
Neighborhoods like North Lawrence and areas surrounding downtown offer the most accessible price points. These Lawrence neighborhoods often feature older housing stock, which aligns with the Affordability score of 50. Investors can find properties here slightly below the Median Home Price: $317,779, though renovation costs may be higher. These areas are popular with renters seeking proximity to downtown amenities.
Mid-Range
East Lawrence and areas near the University of Kansas (KU) campus represent the mid-range segment. These are highly desirable for both students and faculty, keeping rental demand high. While the Median Rent: $869/month is the city average, units closer to KU can command premiums. The Median Days on Market: 27 is often lower in these established, walkable areas.
Premium
Southwest Lawrence, including areas like Deerfield and Cottonwood, commands premium prices. Homes here often exceed the Median Home Price: $317,779. These neighborhoods appeal to families and professionals seeking newer builds and top schools. While the Price-to-Rent Ratio: 27.6x makes buying expensive, these areas offer the most stability and lowest volatility, supporting the Risk Grade: A.