Little Rock
Investment Analysis

Little Rock, AR
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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45
Investment Score
Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.7%
Gross Yield
4.6%
P/R Ratio
16.1x
YoY Growth
+0.8%
Median Home Price
$248,750
Average Rent (1BR)
$950/mo
Median Income
$59,762
Population
203,844

Investment Breakdown

52
Value Score
58
Growth Score
0
Safety Score
61
Afford Score

Little Rock has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.1x, which indicates buying is moderately favorable.

The estimated cap rate of 2.7% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of +0.8% indicates stable market conditions.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $950
Annual Gross $11,400

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$311
Insurance (~0.5%) -$104
Maintenance (~1%) -$207
Est. Net Cash Flow $328/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Little Rock Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$212K2027$221Kโ–ฒ 4.7%2028$228Kโ–ฒ 7.8%20232024Now
$240K$188K
Current
$249K
2026
Projected
$221K
โ†‘ 4.7% by 2027
Projected
$228K
โ†‘ 7.8% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+4.4%
Confidence:Moderate
Rยฒ:0.81
โ–ผ

Looking at the Little Rock housing market forecast for 2026-2028, the data suggests a period of steady, manageable growth rather than explosive gains. The current median home price of $211,549 has appreciated at a modest pace, with a YoY change of just 1.3% and a 5-year CAGR of 4.5%. This stability is appealing to long-term buyers who are wary of volatility. The 55/100 market temperature rating and an A- risk grade indicate a balanced environment where inventory moves at a reasonable 67 days on market, avoiding the frenetic bidding wars seen in hotter regions. This points to a sustainable trajectory for the next few years.

For potential buyers debating whether will Little Rock home prices drop, the metrics lean toward holding steady. The price-to-rent ratio sits at 17.3x, slightly below the national average of 18x, which keeps the door open for both renting and buying. With a median rent of $950/mo, the cost of ownership remains relatively accessible compared to leasing, supporting a "NEUTRAL" verdict. Local economic factors, including steady job growth in healthcare and government sectors, will likely underpin demand without driving prices to unsustainable levels. Affordability remains a key strength for the city, attracting residents from more expensive markets.

Over the 2026-2028 horizon, the Little Rock real estate Little Rock 2027 outlook appears cautiously optimistic. The 5-year price change of 25.0% shows consistent value accumulation, and the price range history ($169,185 โ€“ $211,549) demonstrates a floor of support. However, the market is unlikely to see a dramatic surge unless local economic catalysts accelerate beyond current projections. The forecast suggests incremental appreciation aligned with historical trends, making it a reliable market for wealth building rather than speculation. Buyers should expect a stable environment where value retention is prioritized over rapid flips, solidifying Little Rock's position as a low-risk, steady-return market.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
3.2%
5yr CAGR
+4.4%

Job Market

Unemployment 3.5%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +1.2%

Healthcare

65
Score
Below Avg

Risk Factors

High Crime Area

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 95.6%
Months Supply 5.3
Price Drops 18%
Gone in 2 Wks 25%

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Little Rock.

Total ROI
-92%
on $49,750 invested
Annual ROI
-39.4%
compounded
Total Return
-$45,691
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$1,017
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y154kY258kY362kY467kY572k
Appreciation
$10,239
Cash Flow
-$55,929
Final Equity
$71,651

* Estimates based on 0.8% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Little Rock

Property

Purchase Price$248,750
Monthly Rent$950
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$936
Monthly Cash Flow
-$11,236/ year
-22.6%
Cash-on-Cash
1.6%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$950
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,258
โˆ’ Property Tax$249
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$207
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$48
= Net Cash Flow-$936

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$49,750
Loan Amount
$199,000
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,886
Gross Yield
4.6%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026