Mesquite
Investment Analysis

Mesquite, TX
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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41
Investment Score
Strong Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
3.3%
Gross Yield
5.4%
P/R Ratio
13.1x
YoY Growth
-6.0%
Median Home Price
$285,500
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,291/mo
Median Income
$67,333
Population
147,522

Investment Breakdown

61
Value Score
0
Growth Score
54
Safety Score
47
Afford Score

Mesquite has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.1x, which indicates buying is significantly better than renting.

The estimated cap rate of 3.3% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -6.0% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,291
Annual Gross $15,492

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$357
Insurance (~0.5%) -$119
Maintenance (~1%) -$238
Est. Net Cash Flow $577/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Mesquite Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$256K2027$287Kโ–ฒ 12.2%2028$295Kโ–ฒ 15.1%20232024Now
$310K$243K
Current
$286K
2026
Projected
$287K
โ†‘ 12.2% by 2027
Projected
$295K
โ†‘ 15.1% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+4.2%
Confidence:Low
Rยฒ:0.30
โ–ผ

Our Mesquite housing market forecast for 2026-2028 suggests a period of stabilization and modest appreciation following recent volatility. Currently, the median home price sits at $256,054, and the notable -5.1% year-over-year price change indicates a market cooling from its peak. However, this correction has improved affordability, positioning Mesquite as a compelling entry point compared to the broader DFW metro. The relatively low price-to-rent ratio of 14.7x (versus the national average of 18x) underpins strong demand from both owner-occupants and cash-flow-focused investors, which should provide a floor for prices. With a current market temperature of 58/100, the area is balancing, not crashing.

Will Mesquite home prices drop further? While the -5.1% dip shows softness, the 5-year price change of 25.3% and a healthy CAGR of 4.5% reveal a resilient underlying trend. The extended days on market at 55 days suggest sellers must price competitively, but the A- risk grade signals market stability. Looking ahead to Mesquite real estate Mesquite 2027, growth will likely be driven by the city's affordability relative to Dallas, continued infrastructure development, and its established logistics and retail employment base. While appreciation may not match the rapid gains of the early 2020s, the fundamentals support a gradual recovery.

Overall, the forecast for 2026-2028 leans cautiously optimistic. The "BUY" verdict is supported by favorable fundamentals, but buyers should recognize that a rapid rebound is unlikely. Expect a market characterized by steady, single-digit gains rather than explosive growth, with affordability remaining Mesquite's strongest competitive advantage.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
3.3%
5yr CAGR
+4.2%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +3.2%

Healthcare

70
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 83.5%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Average

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Mesquite.

Total ROI
-91%
on $57,100 invested
Annual ROI
-37.6%
compounded
Total Return
-$51,684
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$976
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y159kY262kY365kY467kY570k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$51,684
Final Equity
$70,485

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Mesquite

Property

Purchase Price$285,500
Monthly Rent$1,291
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$866
Monthly Cash Flow
-$10,387/ year
-18.2%
Cash-on-Cash
2.4%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,291
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,444
โˆ’ Property Tax$286
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$238
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$65
= Net Cash Flow-$866

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$57,100
Loan Amount
$228,400
Total Monthly Expenses
$2,157
Gross Yield
5.4%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026