Wichita Falls
Investment Analysis

Wichita Falls, TX
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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52
Investment Score
Strong Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
3.2%
Gross Yield
5.3%
P/R Ratio
13.5x
YoY Growth
-1.1%
Median Home Price
$189,900
Average Rent (1BR)
$843/mo
Median Income
$60,772
Population
102,683

Investment Breakdown

60
Value Score
40
Growth Score
55
Safety Score
49
Afford Score

Wichita Falls has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.5x, which indicates buying is significantly better than renting.

The estimated cap rate of 3.2% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -1.1% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $843
Annual Gross $10,116

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$237
Insurance (~0.5%) -$79
Maintenance (~1%) -$158
Est. Net Cash Flow $368/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Wichita Falls Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$166K2027$181Kโ–ฒ 9.3%2028$188Kโ–ฒ 13.6%20232024Now
$198K$148K
Current
$190K
2026
Projected
$181K
โ†‘ 9.3% by 2027
Projected
$188K
โ†‘ 13.6% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+5.9%
Confidence:Moderate
Rยฒ:0.76
โ–ผ

When evaluating the Wichita Falls housing market forecast for 2026-2028, the data suggests a period of stabilization rather than explosive growth. With a median home price of $165,644 and a price-to-rent ratio of 14.7x, the market remains significantly more affordable than the national average, which supports continued buyer interest. However, the recent YoY price change of -1.2% indicates that the rapid appreciation seen over the past five years (a 5-year CAGR of 6.0%) is cooling. For potential buyers asking 'will Wichita Falls home prices drop,' the answer appears to be a gentle plateau rather than a sharp decline, supported by a low risk grade of A and a market temperature of 58/100 that leans balanced.

Local economic factors will play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of Wichita Falls real estate Wichita Falls 2027. The areaโ€™s affordability, with median rent at $843/mo, attracts budget-conscious residents, but limited high-wage industry growth could cap significant price surges. Days on market averaging 56 days indicates a market that is neither freezing nor frenzied, giving buyers slightly more leverage than in previous years. While the 5-year price range of $122,984 โ€“ $167,732 shows consistent value retention, external factors like interest rates and regional job stability will be the true drivers. Ultimately, the 'BUY' verdict is compelling for long-term residents seeking stability, though investors should expect modest returns compared to hotter markets.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
3.5%
5yr CAGR
+5.9%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +3.2%

Healthcare

70
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 94.0%
Months Supply 5.0
Price Drops 21%
Gone in 2 Wks 4%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Average

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Wichita Falls.

Total ROI
-93%
on $37,980 invested
Annual ROI
-41.4%
compounded
Total Return
-$35,357
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$664
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y140kY241kY343kY445kY547k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$35,357
Final Equity
$46,883

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Wichita Falls

Property

Purchase Price$189,900
Monthly Rent$843
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$633
Monthly Cash Flow
-$7,590/ year
-20.0%
Cash-on-Cash
2.1%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$843
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$960
โˆ’ Property Tax$190
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$158
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$42
= Net Cash Flow-$633

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$37,980
Loan Amount
$151,920
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,476
Gross Yield
5.3%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026