Fort Smith
Investment Analysis

Fort Smith, AR
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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57
Investment Score
Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.2%
Gross Yield
3.7%
P/R Ratio
17.6x
YoY Growth
+2.5%
Median Home Price
$218,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$678/mo
Median Income
$54,009
Population
89,771

Investment Breakdown

47
Value Score
75
Growth Score
43
Safety Score
65
Afford Score

Fort Smith has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.6x, which indicates buying is moderately favorable.

The estimated cap rate of 2.2% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of +2.5% indicates stable market conditions.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $678
Annual Gross $8,136

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$273
Insurance (~0.5%) -$91
Maintenance (~1%) -$182
Est. Net Cash Flow $133/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Fort Smith Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$189K2027$197Kโ–ฒ 4.3%2028$203Kโ–ฒ 7.6%20232024Now
$213K$168K
Current
$218K
2026
Projected
$197K
โ†‘ 4.3% by 2027
Projected
$203K
โ†‘ 7.6% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+4.7%
Confidence:High
Rยฒ:0.85
โ–ผ

Looking at the Fort Smith housing market forecast for 2026-2028, the data paints a picture of stability rather than explosive growth. With a median home price of $188,546 and a price-to-rent ratio of 20.0x, which is slightly above the national average of 18x, the market leans toward renting as the more financially prudent choice in the near term. The modest year-over-year price change of 2.1% and a 5-year CAGR of 4.7% suggest that while appreciation is present, it's not outpacing inflation significantly. The local economy, anchored by manufacturing and the Arkansas River corridor, provides a steady but unspectacular employment base that will likely keep demand balanced. Days on market at 66 indicate a market that isn't overheating, giving buyers some negotiating room.

When asking will Fort Smith home prices drop, the answer appears to be no, but significant gains are also unlikely. The market temperature of 55/100 and an A- risk grade point to a low-volatility environment, ideal for long-term residents but less attractive for speculative investors. Affordability remains a key advantage here compared to larger metros, which could attract budget-conscious buyers from neighboring states. However, with a 5-year price range of $148,965 โ€“ $188,546, the ceiling for appreciation seems constrained by local income levels. For those analyzing Fort Smith real estate Fort Smith 2027, the outlook is one of gradual, steady growth tied closely to regional job stability rather than a boom cycle.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
2.6%
5yr CAGR
+4.7%

Job Market

Unemployment 3.5%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +1.2%

Healthcare

65
Score
Below Avg

Risk Factors

High Crime Area

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 97.0%
Months Supply 6.7
Price Drops 23%
Gone in 2 Wks 8%

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Fort Smith.

Total ROI
-69%
on $43,600 invested
Annual ROI
-20.6%
compounded
Total Return
-$29,884
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$1,038
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y151kY258kY366kY474kY583k
Appreciation
$28,767
Cash Flow
-$58,651
Final Equity
$82,587

* Estimates based on 2.5% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Fort Smith

Property

Purchase Price$218,000
Monthly Rent$678
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$983
Monthly Cash Flow
-$11,795/ year
-27.1%
Cash-on-Cash
0.7%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$678
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,102
โˆ’ Property Tax$218
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$182
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$34
= Net Cash Flow-$983

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$43,600
Loan Amount
$174,400
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,661
Gross Yield
3.7%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026