Medford
Investment Analysis

Medford, OR
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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46
Investment Score
Hold
Cap Rate (Est.)
1.9%
Gross Yield
3.2%
P/R Ratio
23.7x
YoY Growth
+0.1%
Median Home Price
$392,250
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,062/mo
Median Income
$66,186
Population
85,100

Investment Breakdown

29
Value Score
51
Growth Score
71
Safety Score
47
Afford Score

Medford has a price-to-rent ratio of 23.7x, which indicates renting and buying are roughly equal.

The estimated cap rate of 1.9% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of +0.1% indicates stable market conditions.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,062
Annual Gross $12,744

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$490
Insurance (~0.5%) -$163
Maintenance (~1%) -$327
Est. Net Cash Flow $81/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Medford Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$399K2027$410Kโ–ฒ 2.7%2028$416Kโ–ฒ 4.2%20232024Now
$436K$367K
Current
$392K
2026
Projected
$410K
โ†‘ 2.7% by 2027
Projected
$416K
โ†‘ 4.2% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+3.5%
Confidence:Low
Rยฒ:0.35
โ–ผ

Our Medford housing market forecast for 2026-2028 suggests a period of stabilization rather than rapid growth. With the current median home price at $398,841 and a sluggish YoY price change of 0.3%, the market is clearly cooling from its pandemic-era highs. The price-to-rent ratio sits at a steep 27.0x, well above the national average, which heavily informs the "RENT" verdict for those not already invested. This metric indicates that buying is significantly more expensive than renting on a monthly basis, a pressure that will likely cap appreciation. For anyone asking will Medford home prices drop, the data points to a soft landing rather than a sharp correction, supported by a strong Risk Grade of A and a 5-year CAGR of 3.9%, which signals a return to more historical, sustainable norms.

Looking toward Medford real estate Medford 2027, local economic factors will be crucial. The region's reliance on healthcare and a growing logistics sector provides a stable employment base, but affordability remains a major hurdle for new buyers. The Days on Market of 46 suggests homes aren't flying off the shelves, giving buyers more leverage and time to decide. While inventory may increase slightly, the underlying demand from people drawn to the Rogue Valley's lifestyle should prevent any significant price collapse. Over the next few years, expect price growth to hover around the 3.9% CAGR, keeping pace with inflation but not outpacing it. This balanced outlook makes Medford a more measured investment compared to overheated markets, appealing to long-term residents rather than speculative flippers.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
1.9%
5yr CAGR
+3.5%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +1.8%

Healthcare

79
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Low Risk Profile

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 97.8%
Months Supply 5.3
Price Drops 33%
Gone in 2 Wks 18%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Very Safe

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Medford.

Total ROI
-144%
on $78,450 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$113,018
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$2,017
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y182kY286kY390kY495kY599k
Appreciation
$2,359
Cash Flow
-$115,377
Final Equity
$99,198

* Estimates based on 0.1% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Medford

Property

Purchase Price$392,250
Monthly Rent$1,062
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$1,819
Monthly Cash Flow
-$21,824/ year
-27.8%
Cash-on-Cash
0.5%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,062
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,983
โˆ’ Property Tax$392
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$327
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$53
= Net Cash Flow-$1,819

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$78,450
Loan Amount
$313,800
Total Monthly Expenses
$2,881
Gross Yield
3.2%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026