Missouri City
Investment Analysis

Missouri City, TX
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

Share:
45
Investment Score
Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.5%
Gross Yield
4.2%
P/R Ratio
17.6x
YoY Growth
-2.2%
Median Home Price
$358,375
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,252/mo
Median Income
$87,072
Population
71,820

Investment Breakdown

47
Value Score
28
Growth Score
55
Safety Score
50
Afford Score

Missouri City has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.6x, which indicates buying is moderately favorable.

The estimated cap rate of 2.5% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -2.2% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,252
Annual Gross $15,024

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$448
Insurance (~0.5%) -$149
Maintenance (~1%) -$299
Est. Net Cash Flow $356/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Missouri City Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$331K2027$362Kโ–ฒ 9.5%2028$373Kโ–ฒ 12.8%20232024Now
$392K$314K
Current
$358K
2026
Projected
$362K
โ†‘ 9.5% by 2027
Projected
$373K
โ†‘ 12.8% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+5.1%
Confidence:Moderate
Rยฒ:0.52
โ–ผ

Looking at the Missouri City housing market forecast through 2028, the area appears to be settling into a more balanced phase after a period of strong appreciation. With the median home price at $330,555 and a recent YoY price change of -2.1%, we are seeing a modest cooling that aligns with broader market normalization. However, the 5-year price change of 29.6% (a 5.2% CAGR) demonstrates the underlying resilience and long-term desirability of this Fort Bend County community. The market temperature of 60/100 and a risk grade of A suggest stability, but potential buyers asking โ€œwill Missouri City home prices dropโ€ should note that this correction is likely a plateau rather than a significant downturn, supported by strong local fundamentals.

A key metric for affordability is the price-to-rent ratio of 19.6x, which sits above the national average of 18x, indicating that buying remains a more significant financial commitment than renting in the short term. This is reflected in the โ€œNEUTRALโ€ buy/rent verdict. In the Missouri City real estate market for 2027, factors like proximity to the Texas Medical Center and ongoing commercial development in Sugar Land will continue to drive demand, keeping days on market at a reasonable 51 days. While growth may moderate compared to the pandemic boom, the areaโ€™s established schools and community amenities provide a solid floor for values. The forecast points toward steady, single-digit appreciation rather than explosive growth, making it a prudent environment for long-term homeownership rather than speculative flipping.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
2.6%
5yr CAGR
+5.1%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +3.2%

Healthcare

70
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 96.1%
Months Supply 7.5
Price Drops 26%
Gone in 2 Wks 23%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Average

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Missouri City.

Total ROI
-123%
on $71,675 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$87,851
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$1,576
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y175kY278kY381kY485kY588k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$87,851
Final Equity
$88,476

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Missouri City

Property

Purchase Price$358,375
Monthly Rent$1,252
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$1,405
Monthly Cash Flow
-$16,857/ year
-23.5%
Cash-on-Cash
1.4%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,252
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,812
โˆ’ Property Tax$358
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$299
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$63
= Net Cash Flow-$1,405

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$71,675
Loan Amount
$286,700
Total Monthly Expenses
$2,657
Gross Yield
4.2%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026