Murrieta
Investment Analysis

Murrieta, CA
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

Share:
45
Investment Score
Hold
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.2%
Gross Yield
3.7%
P/R Ratio
21.5x
YoY Growth
-2.1%
Median Home Price
$680,750
Average Rent (1BR)
$2,104/mo
Median Income
$108,703
Population
111,870

Investment Breakdown

36
Value Score
29
Growth Score
82
Safety Score
42
Afford Score

Murrieta has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.5x, which indicates renting and buying are roughly equal.

The estimated cap rate of 2.2% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -2.1% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $2,104
Annual Gross $25,248

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$851
Insurance (~0.5%) -$284
Maintenance (~1%) -$567
Est. Net Cash Flow $402/mo

Price Forecast 2026–2028

🔮 Murrieta Price Forecast 20262028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis · Statistical projection
📈 Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$677K2027$734K 8.4%2028$759K 12.1%20232024Now
$797K$602K
Current
$681K
2026
Projected
$734K
8.4% by 2027
Projected
$759K
12.1% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+6.0%
Confidence:Moderate
R²:0.62

For prospective buyers and investors eyeing the Murrieta housing market forecast through 2026-2028, the data suggests a period of consolidation rather than rapid appreciation. With the median home price at $677,274 and a recent YoY price change of -1.9%, the market is showing signs of cooling off after a robust 5-year run that saw prices climb 36.3%. The current price-to-rent ratio stands at 23.8x, significantly above the national average of 18x, which heavily influences the "RENT" verdict for immediate occupancy. This high ratio indicates that purchasing remains expensive relative to leasing, a dynamic likely to persist as affordability constraints tighten in the region.

Addressing the question of whether Murrieta home prices will drop, the outlook points toward stabilization rather than a steep decline. The market temperature score of 59/100 and a strong Risk Grade of A- suggest underlying resilience, supported by Murrieta’s steady job growth in healthcare and logistics,以及不断涌入的来自内陆帝国(Inland Empire)寻求更实惠住房的家庭需求。然而,随着抵押贷款利率可能维持在较高水平,以及本地供应量的缓慢增加,价格增长将受到抑制。 Days on market averaging 53 indicates homes are still moving, but sellers must price competitively. For those analyzing Murrieta real estate Murrieta 2027, the forecast suggests a balanced environment where prices hold steady with minimal growth, making it a safer long-term bet than speculative hotspots.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
2.1%
5yr CAGR
+6%

Job Market

Unemployment 5.2%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +1.5%

Healthcare

78
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin · 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 98.9%
Months Supply 4.4
Price Drops 24%
Gone in 2 Wks 21%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Very Safe

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Murrieta.

Total ROI
-135%
on $136,150 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$183,972
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$3,253
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y1142kY2148kY3154kY4161kY5168k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$183,972
Final Equity
$168,064

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Murrieta

Property

Purchase Price$680,750
Monthly Rent$2,104
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$2,816
Monthly Cash Flow
-$33,798/ year
-24.8%
Cash-on-Cash
1.1%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$2,104
− Mortgage (P&I)$3,442
− Property Tax$681
− Insurance$125
− Maintenance$567
− Vacancy Loss$105
= Net Cash Flow-$2,816

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$136,150
Loan Amount
$544,600
Total Monthly Expenses
$4,920
Gross Yield
3.7%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026