Livermore
Investment Analysis

Livermore, CA
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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24
Investment Score
Rent
Cap Rate (Est.)
1.6%
Gross Yield
2.7%
P/R Ratio
31.4x
YoY Growth
-5.9%
Median Home Price
$1,037,500
Average Rent (1BR)
$2,304/mo
Median Income
$151,705
Population
82,899

Investment Breakdown

6
Value Score
0
Growth Score
77
Safety Score
32
Afford Score

Livermore has a price-to-rent ratio of 31.4x, which indicates renting is more favorable than buying.

The estimated cap rate of 1.6% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -5.9% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $2,304
Annual Gross $27,648

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$1,297
Insurance (~0.5%) -$432
Maintenance (~1%) -$865
Est. Net Cash Flow -$290/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Livermore Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$1M2027$1Mโ–ฒ 9.0%2028$1Mโ–ฒ 11.7%20232024Now
$1M$972K
Current
$1M
2026
Projected
$1M
โ†‘ 9.0% by 2027
Projected
$1M
โ†‘ 11.7% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+4.0%
Confidence:Low
Rยฒ:0.39
โ–ผ

Our Livermore housing market forecast for 2026-2028 suggests a period of price stabilization and modest adjustments rather than a dramatic downturn. The recent -6.0% YoY price change indicates a cooling phase after significant appreciation, but the 5-Year Price Change of 24.3% demonstrates underlying market strength. With a Price-to-Rent Ratio of 34.8x, well above the national average of 18x, buying remains significantly more expensive than renting. This dynamic, coupled with a "Buy/Rent Verdict" of RENT, will likely temper buyer enthusiasm. However, the 30 Days on Market figure shows properties are still moving, suggesting demand hasn't evaporated. For those asking will Livermore home prices drop further, the data points to a soft landing rather than a crash, with prices likely hovering within the recent $869,870 โ€“ $1,170,696 range.

Affordability challenges will be the central theme for the next few years. The current Median Home Price of $1,081,289 is a steep barrier for many, especially with mortgage rates still elevated. While the local economy, anchored by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and a thriving wine industry, provides stability, high borrowing costs will cap aggressive appreciation. The Market Temperature score of 66/100 reflects a balanced, if cautious, environment. For anyone considering Livermore real estate Livermore 2027, the outlook is one of steadiness. The 5-Year CAGR of 4.4% represents a more sustainable growth pace compared to the pandemic-era frenzy. While the Risk Grade of B- suggests some caution is warranted, the market's fundamentals support resilience over a steep decline.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
1.4%
5yr CAGR
+4%

Job Market

Unemployment 5.2%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +1.5%

Healthcare

78
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Overvalued Market
Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 98.9%
Months Supply 2.2
Price Drops 17%
Gone in 2 Wks 60%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Very Safe

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Livermore.

Total ROI
-162%
on $207,500 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$336,653
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$5,816
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y1216kY2225kY3235kY4245kY5256k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$336,653
Final Equity
$256,139

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Livermore

Property

Purchase Price$1,037,500
Monthly Rent$2,304
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$5,084
Monthly Cash Flow
-$61,013/ year
-29.4%
Cash-on-Cash
0.2%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$2,304
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$5,246
โˆ’ Property Tax$1,038
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$865
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$115
= Net Cash Flow-$5,084

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$207,500
Loan Amount
$830,000
Total Monthly Expenses
$7,388
Gross Yield
2.7%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026